Posted by Nick on 05/11/2009
In Third Sector Foresight our eyes are always peeled, scanning the horizon for events that may impact the sector for good or ill (or, as is often the case, events that will benefit some parts of the sector, or those that are prepared for them, and disadvantage other parts of the sector, or those that aren’t prepared). On 13 November NCVO hosts its Autumn conference in Manchester: ‘Looking to the election and beyond’, where I’ll be co-facilitating the booked-out workshop ‘Looking out and thinking ahead’. That same day, dystopian blockbuster ‘2012’ hits cinema screens. Based on the idea that the end of the Mayan calendar means the end of the world (rather than the more plausible possibility that the Mayans just realised no-one was inviting them to things five centuries hence) the film’s strapline - ‘who will survive?’ – will resonate with charities planning for the 2011-2012 financial year. This diagram from The Guardian and the Institute of Fiscal Studies shows current public spending. It makes clear (like you need reminding) that whichever party or alliance of parties holds power after the 2010 General election, with the bank bailout (the orange bubble in the top right) equal in size to the cost of the NHS (the pale blue bubble in the bottom right), government spending will be cut. Which bring us to what I’ve named (following UK date conventions) ‘3/11’. March 2011 will be the end of the 2010-2011 financial year, when some charities fear their own Day the World Changed as the new government (of whatever hue) starts its first post-election financial year, pulls in its horns, and cuts grants and contracts to deliver services. Fortunately, here in Foresight we are always looking ahead. We've monitored what the election and a possible Conservative government might mean for civil society. We've examined their focus on social justice , as well as cross-party trends on rights and responsibilities and attitudes towards the welfare state , which will influence cuts by any government. And in studying the recent Conservative and Labour party conferences we've tried to push your thinking beyond the short term, drawing out the possible implications for your organisation, and helping you to work out how to survive 3/11.
No tags
